People often asked whether I think Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed as the next US Supreme Court Justice. The short answer is yes, probably – his confirmation seems almost inevitable at this point, but will depend on the outcome of 4 key undecided Senate votes. The undecided senators are:
1. Jeff Flake;
2. Susan Collins
3. Lisa Murkowski; and
4. Joe Manchin.
Of these, Flake and Collins are likely to vote for confirmation after the subsequent FBI investigation (Flake said that there was no "corroborating evidence" of the allegations against Kavanaugh, and Collins praised the investigation as "very thorough"), but Murkowski and Manchin remain truly undecided – at this point. Collins is supposed to announce her "final decision" at 2 PM EST today, but it would not surprise me In the least if she decided to vote in favor of confirmation.
The undecided votes are important because the Senate is divided 51 Republicans – 49 Democrats. If all of the Democrats vote against, confirmation, the confirmation vote will be tied – and the tie will be broken by Vice President Mike Pence. Guess what way he will vote? That's right – in favor of confirmation. In that case, Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed.
If, on the other hand, all of the Democrats vote against confirmation, and at least 2 Republicans join the Democrats in voting against confirmation, then Kavanaugh will not be confirmed. However, it is not a sure bet that all of the Democrats will vote against confirmation. Manchin is facing reelection in a heavily Republican state, and might try to curry favor with voters by voting in support of confirmation.
In the end, I think that Kavanaugh will be confirmed, but I think that the very contentious, and hostile confirmation process has eroded the public's faith in both Republicans and Democrats, and in the confirmation process itself. It has certainly eroded my faith.
Update (10-5-2018, 3:06 PM): Manchin and Collins have both announced their support for Kavanaugh's confirmation. As such, I think it is highly unlikely – indeed, almost improbable – that Kavanaugh will not be confirmed, and expect that he will be confirmed on Saturday.
WARNING: The information contained in this blog post does not constitute legal advice and may not be applicable to your situation. Tim is licensed to practice law only in Minnesota, and the information contained in this blog post may not apply to jurisdictions outside of Minnesota. Further, reading this blog post does not create an attorney-client relationship between you and Baland Law Office, P.L.L.C. You should always discuss your situation with an attorney before taking any action based on what you may read in this blog. To that end, please call (763) 290 – 0445 to set up an appointment to discuss your situation.
1. Jeff Flake;
2. Susan Collins
3. Lisa Murkowski; and
4. Joe Manchin.
Of these, Flake and Collins are likely to vote for confirmation after the subsequent FBI investigation (Flake said that there was no "corroborating evidence" of the allegations against Kavanaugh, and Collins praised the investigation as "very thorough"), but Murkowski and Manchin remain truly undecided – at this point. Collins is supposed to announce her "final decision" at 2 PM EST today, but it would not surprise me In the least if she decided to vote in favor of confirmation.
The undecided votes are important because the Senate is divided 51 Republicans – 49 Democrats. If all of the Democrats vote against, confirmation, the confirmation vote will be tied – and the tie will be broken by Vice President Mike Pence. Guess what way he will vote? That's right – in favor of confirmation. In that case, Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed.
If, on the other hand, all of the Democrats vote against confirmation, and at least 2 Republicans join the Democrats in voting against confirmation, then Kavanaugh will not be confirmed. However, it is not a sure bet that all of the Democrats will vote against confirmation. Manchin is facing reelection in a heavily Republican state, and might try to curry favor with voters by voting in support of confirmation.
In the end, I think that Kavanaugh will be confirmed, but I think that the very contentious, and hostile confirmation process has eroded the public's faith in both Republicans and Democrats, and in the confirmation process itself. It has certainly eroded my faith.
Update (10-5-2018, 3:06 PM): Manchin and Collins have both announced their support for Kavanaugh's confirmation. As such, I think it is highly unlikely – indeed, almost improbable – that Kavanaugh will not be confirmed, and expect that he will be confirmed on Saturday.
WARNING: The information contained in this blog post does not constitute legal advice and may not be applicable to your situation. Tim is licensed to practice law only in Minnesota, and the information contained in this blog post may not apply to jurisdictions outside of Minnesota. Further, reading this blog post does not create an attorney-client relationship between you and Baland Law Office, P.L.L.C. You should always discuss your situation with an attorney before taking any action based on what you may read in this blog. To that end, please call (763) 290 – 0445 to set up an appointment to discuss your situation.
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