President Trump has nominated Brett Kavanaugh to succeed Justice Kennedy on the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh is 53 years old, conservative, and has sat on the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit since 2006. If confirmed, his appointment will give President Trump the opportunity to shape and reshape the political landscape in this country, making it more conservative than it already is.
Kavanaugh only needs to be confirmed by a simple majority in the Senate, meaning that the majority party can confirm a Supreme Court nominee without any support from the minority party. In other words, the Republicans can confirm Kavanaugh without any support from Democrats, and Democrats cannot filibuster the nomination process.
I think that Democrats may have made a tactical blunder in allowing the Republicans to change Senate rules to confirm Justice Gorsuch by a simple majority and eliminate the filibuster because Gorsuch, a conservative, replaced Scalia, another conservative. Here, if confirmed, Kavanaugh, a conservative, will succeed Justice Kennedy, who is probably more conservative than not but nevertheless a key swing vote on many issues.
Democrats may have been wiser to allow the Gorsuch confirmation, replacing a conservative with a conservative, and preserving the confirmation process. Instead, Democrats filibustered the Gorsuch confirmation, and Republicans invoked the so-called "nuclear" option, eliminating the ability of the minority party to filibuster a confirmation in the Senate.
There are probably good reasons why Democrats opposed the Gorsuch confirmation, but I think I would have allowed it to preserve the filibuster. In other words, by opposing Gorsuch, Democrats lost the opportunity to filibuster confirmation hearings for future Supreme Court nominees. As such, Kavanaugh will almost certainly be confirmed.
in his speech accepting the nomination, Kavanaugh stated that "My judicial philosophy is straightforward. A judge must be independent, and must interpret the law, not make the law." By itself, that does not sound too bad. I am not going to predict how Kavanaugh will rule on certain issues, but I think that his confirmation will give the court a more conservative slant for generations.
Still, I have always been surprised by the Supreme Court. In particular, I was very surprised when Chief Justice Roberts wrote the opinion that upheld Obamacare. I expect to be surprised by decisions coming from the Supreme Court in the future.
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